The association between physical outputs and match outcome across different playing styles for a professional second-tier football team across two complete seasons

Elite-level football requires an array of physical, technical, psychological, and tactical skills. The aim of this study was to measure the association between physical outputs (distance, decelerations, accelerations) and the match outcome (win, draw, lose) in professional football. This research also examined whether the same association is influenced if a team adopts a possession or transition-based playing style. Thirty-six elite-outfield football players from an English Championship team participated in the study during the 2020/2021 and 2021/2022 seasons using physical and event data collected from an English Championship club over the 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 seasons, this study conducted a univariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) and Hedge g effect size (ES) to measure the research aims. The results showed no significant differences were found between match outcomes for each physical output metric calculated. There was a trivial ES shown for all conditions except decelerations, with win/lose having a moderate ES (g=0.53). When playing a possession-based playing style there was no significant difference or non-trivial ES found for any physical output and match outcomes. When playing a transition-based playing style there was a moderate ES found for win/draw (P=0.38, g=0.90) and win/loss (P=0.98, g=0.64). This research provides important evidence for utilizing intense deceleration actions as a physical KPI during match play for teams adopting a transitional playing style. Subsequently, training interventions should be adopted to physically prepare players to complete and sustain intense deceleration actions during match play.