Personality and analogy-based project estimation

The aim of this research is to investigate the relationship between personality and expert prediction behaviour when estimating software project effort using analogical reasoning. For some years we have been developing tools and techniques for estimation by analogy (EBA). However the variability of results from using these tools and techniques can be difficult to interpret. We have conducted a pilot study to integrate knowledge from cognitive psychology and computer science to investigate how to improve estimation when using analogy-based tools. We interviewed and assessed the personality of two experienced project managers to gain an understanding of their background and the problem solving strategies they currently employ. Following these interviews, the project managers were given a typical project effort estimation task. The project managers were asked to complete the task using our analogical reasoning tool and articulate their processes by means of a ?think aloud? protocol. We found significant differences in prediction approach that may be in part be explained by personality differences. One aspect, i.e. the strong need to acquire personal understanding may present obstacles to the successful use of some prediction tools.