Enhancing supply chain management: a comparative study of machine learning techniques with cost–accuracy and ESG-based evaluation for forecasting and risk mitigation

In today’s volatile market environment, supply chain management (SCM) must address complex challenges such as fluctuating demand, fraud, and delivery delays. This study applies machine learning techniques—Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) and Recurrent Neural Networks (RNNs)—to optimize demand forecasting, inventory policies, and risk mitigation within a unified framework. XGBoost achieves high forecasting accuracy (MAE = 0.1571, MAPE = 0.48%), while RNNs excel at fraud detection and late delivery prediction (F1-score ≈ 98%). To evaluate models beyond accuracy, we introduce two novel metrics: Cost–Accuracy Efficiency (CAE) and CAE-ESG, which combine predictive performance with cost-efficiency and ESG alignment. These holistic measures support sustainable model selection aligned with the ISO 14001, GRI, and SASB benchmarks; they also demonstrate that, despite lower accuracy, Random Forest achieves the highest CAE-ESG score due to its low complexity and strong ESG profile. We also apply SHAP analysis to improve model interpretability and demonstrate business impact through enhanced Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) and reduced churn. This research offers a practical, interpretable, and sustainability-aware ML framework for supply chains, enabling more resilient, cost-effective, and responsible decision-making.