A Cognitive Perspective on Analogy-based Project Estimation

Analogical or case-based reasoning (CBR) is a problem-solving method using episodic memory and retrieval by similarity. It is used increasingly in many problem-solving domains including project management. However, in industry, results using CBR are varied. It is unclear why this should be. We are investigating the cognitive processes of professionals using CBR tools for problem-solving. This area has been neglected. To this end, we are generating real-world problems drawn from the area of project effort prediction, and conducting empirical studies with professional participants using our existing CBR tool. The study involves multiple techniques including interviews and think-aloud protocols based on a Grounded Theory approach. The purpose is to improve understanding and utilization of CBR. Historically, although the cognitive paradigm has been adopted in computer science, the cognitive processes of the user have been neglected. This paper provides an example of advancing computer science through integration with cognitive psychology.